Roe Who? An Experiment in Alternative History: A Preliminary Model of What Should Have Been – REVISITED

One more little bit of bookkeeping here to properly document items that went straight to the legacy site due to some laziness on my part over the last couple of weeks. This one featured an post from August 30, 2019:

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Well, let’s see where this goes…

On several occasions around related topics I have referenced an interest in the impact that Roe v. Wade has had on the U.S. population pyramid. My internet searches have been perfectly unsuccessful in finding much on the subject. (Better Googlers are always welcome to help me out here.) Therefore, I finally decided to attempt to do something to scratch this itch. The following is my first attempt to model this with the hope that some of you can help me refine the prototype into something useful enough that a further thought experiment of some value can proceed around it. To this end, I will be as anti-Mann-ian as possible…that is, I will be as honest and forthright as I can be about my data, methods, and assumptions.

To start with, I did not like the way so many of the pyramids available on-line grouped the ages into five-year increments. I like more detail. Therefore, I started with the first one I found that was presented in yearly age increments. Unfortunately, I could not find the tabular data. So, it is manual measurements from the printed copy that provided this recreation:

A fairly accurate reproduction if I do say so myself. My model overstates the total population of the time by just over 0.9% (319.1M vs. 316.2M). Close enough for Ricochet work.

Now things got a little tougher. I will admit that on those occasions that I wondered about this effect I was not thinking it through very far and mainly just assumed that forced abortions would drop to zero in my model after the opposite Roe decision. Well, clearly that is not what would have happened. It is exactly that discussion – how/where American society…in it’s fifty little laboratories…would have settled along the spectrum of life and death for the not-yet-born – that I hope to have around this “tool.” But for now, I just made a few basic assumptions to get the ball rolling.

First, beginning in 1974, I assumed annual reported forced abortions would be cut in half from reported actuals but then capped at 750,000 per year (i.e. the culture of death and its enabling industry does not take hold). The resulting additional live births were split evenly between male (M’) and female (F’).

Second, beginning in 2002 I started “issuing” each female “saved” in the above paragraph the requisite 1.8 children (on her 28th birthday). Again, these additional live births were split evenly between male (M”) and female (F”).

The one problem was deciding the number of annual reported abortions to use. Wikipedia provides a listing based on CDC reports beginning in 1969 but also notes:

“Unlike the CDC, the pro-choice research and policy organization Guttmacher Institute does not rely only on state reports but periodically surveys abortion providers in all states and estimates the number of abortions in the United States. They consistently identify higher rates of abortion than the CDC while also stating that even their own figures may underestimate abortion rates by up to five percent. Both pro-choice and pro-life activists consider the Guttmacher figures to be more accurate than the CDC.”

[emphasis added]

However, I was unable to locate a similar annual listing from Guttmacher. I did find a few data points the indicated that the Guttmacher numbers tended to be approximately 1.45 times as much as the CDC numbers. I use that factor across the board to modify the Wikipedia data.

On that basis, the first pass at this looks like this:

At first blush the effect does not appear as “massive” as I though it would. But I think this is still important. The model shows a net increase in overall population of 45 million people. That puts an additional 15 million between 25 and 55 years old. A cynic may point out that that is quite an “S” load of additional I-Phone sales and Facebook accounts…but, to be a bit more serious, certainly those numbers would have driven society and the economy and the electorate down significantly different paths. (The same cynic just might point out that the urge by our ruling class betters to instantly create tens of millions of new citizens in order to extend the life of their Ponzi schemes just may not be as strong with a population “pyramid” showing actual growth in numbers of tax-payers stretching into the future. But I digress.)

It is at this point that I will turn it over and hope for some neighborhood participation. Your thoughts on the model, the impacts to any and all aspects of current times had Roe never happened, and the importance of this (if any) to us today would be greatly appreciated.

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In a related note, from the dying industry that is stand-up comedy, this is genius:

During his set, Chappelle began discussing abortion and began by saying something you typically hear from the left when it comes to making arguments in that if you’re a man, you should stay out of the abortion debate altogether.

Wait for it.

Chappelle doesn’t stop there as many “comedians” do. Instead, Chappelle takes the argument to its logical end and then says something afterward that caught my attention.

“Gentleman, that is fair,” said Chappelle after saying that women shouldn’t have to consult anyone except a physician.

“And ladies, to be fair to us, I also believe that if you decide to have the baby, a man should not have to pay,” said Chappelle. “That’s fair.”

“If you can kill this [REDACTED], I can at least abandon them,” he continued. “It’s my money, my choice.”

Chappelle finished by leaving the crowd and the viewer something to ponder. It wasn’t even a joke, just an interesting thing to say after all of that.

“And if I’m wrong, then perhaps we’re wrong,” he said.

— — — — —  End of 2019 Post — — — — —

As we come to the end of the year that “Roe v. Wade” died it may be worth reflecting on that victory…as small and as huge as it is at the same time…and the impact that arrogant constitutional blunder is having and will continue to have on American society because of the resulting perversions to several generations of demographics and the fact that the culture of death (to include approximately one and a half of the major modern political parties) is hell bent on doubling and tripling down on keeping the abortion numbers up. 

Always onward, into the abyss…

[Note: A few minor edits have been performed to the original text and the title has been shortened from: Roe Who? An Experiment in Alternative History Modeling and Prognosticating – Volume 1: A Preliminary Model of What Should Have Been.]

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