I have spent the last week a great distance from a useful keyboard. Having now returned, I must step back to the headlines of a week ago to relieve a little itch that has been bothering me since this news broke:

Senator Thom Tillis Announces He Will Not Seek Re-Election

North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis previously railroaded the nomination of USAO Ed Martin. Senator Tillis has also blocked many of the key elements of President Trump’s border effort and immigration plan, and last night he announced he will vote against President Trump and the Big Beautiful Bill.

Today, facing severe backlash from the people within his state and the larger MAGA community, Thom Tillis announces he is going to forcefully oppose the BBB and is not going to seek reelection, so there’s no political leverage against him.

I will also borrow from the comments at that link: “Tillis is a cheap labor corporatist who never missed an opportunity to fink on his voters to reward his donors. He was an unprincipled, unpurposed miscreant who makes Mitt Romney look like Patrick Henry. Good riddance.” Alas, he was precisely the prototype necessitated by the big-tent-ism-at-all-costs aimed at the Soft Center Right for the first decade or so of this century. By 2014 the phenomenon had evolved to a rather depressing game of intellectual surrender and mindless compliance to the manipulations (and funds) of the establishment. Tillis may or may not be the best case regarding this exact phenomenon but his candidacy in 2014 offers insight into the mindset of the chattering class at the time:

I Gave $100 to Thom Tillis’s Campaign (Erick Erickson or RedState, May 7, 2014)

… I am sending money to Thom Tillis whose candidacy I opposed in the North Carolina Republican Primary. For conservatives, Thom Tillis was the worst possible outcome in North Carolina. Backed by Crossroads and the Chamber, Tillis will not back free markets and small government to the extent either of his other major competitors would.

But Tillis is massively better than Kay Hagan. Tillis would not vote for Obamacare in the Senate, unlike Kay Hagan.

Many conservatives are upset by the outcome in North Carolina. But politics is always about choosing between the lesser of two evils. …

You could choose to sit home and claim Tillis is no better than Hagan, but that’s just bitterness talking. Tillis is an improvement over Hagan and I say that as someone who opposed him in the primary.

Mr. Erickson was, if nothing else, a creature of the times. He was not alone in center-right-ish punditry…and posers of the same. (I make no judgement and no comment as to what he is today. I know virtually nothing of his work over the last ten or so years.)

Unfortunately, the comments under that post are lost to the ether behind one of the “upgrades” during the golden age of RedState (pre-Susan Wright, but I digress). As fate would have it, I did save my most important comment from that thread. It appeared in a post two years later (reproduced in its entirety below)…and represents the first pass at my opposition to this blind obedience and intentional focus on short term gain at any price:

This “vote most conservative in the primary, Republican in the general” policy is generally a good rule of thumb – particularly in tipping the scales to a majority – but strict adherence ignorant of reality can be dangerous. Handing the office and all the stability and power of incumbency to an establishment puppet can saddle us with phony, unreliable numbers for a long time. Sometimes it might be better to actually keep the opposition on the other side of the aisle…and I don’t think that is stupid at all. – ntrepid comment on RedState (May 7, 2014)

[Emphasis added]

Alas, as with the powerful forces at other legacy sort-of-center-right-ish sites with (albeit dwindling) member participation, the sycophant hoards did not generally care for such counter establishment sentiments. In early 2015, as the new Senate majority continued to disappoint (and outrage), I (as ntrepid) added to the greater (and still developing) point:

…once past that threshold you are just in a different reality than those who want to robotically scream “[you must] vote most conservative in the primary, Republican in the general”. Rational discussions back across that divide were hard to come by but I tried:

“[Their] overall voting record is IRRELEVANT; it is on the votes that are really important to conservatives that these types will always be available to tip the scales the other way if needed. All the while, “we” feel good because we think we have the numbers. … Sometimes it might be better to actually keep the opposition on the other side of the aisle…” – ntrepid comment on RedState (February 25, 2015)

[Emphasis added]

Putting aside all of the irrelevant votes, during that term, in how many truly important votes was Tillis the key vote in a victory for the Republican cause? (The Republicans maintained a mere 51-49 majority during the middle third of the term, but I can think of nothing that would have changed for the better or for the worse without Thom tucked safely in Mitch’s pocket. What are the odds – given all of the stability and power of the incumbency and all – that North Carolina would have self-corrected in 2020 with a Tillis loss in 2014? What price was paid for this twelve-year capitulation to the Soft Center Right? Having a proper understanding – as some of us did back then and as certainly anyone willing to see does now – of just how the McConnell Caucus worked with its pool of 4 to 6 reliable votes to be used to orchestrate narrow wins and narrow losses (when the establishment desired), it would seem that the Tillis seat was not so critical as to sell out a potentially stronger future. Certainly, a waste of $100 in one case.

*** *** ***

SOME FUN BONUS POSTING HISTORY

As noted above, an old RedState post from my time there as “ntrepid” is recreated below from my draft archive for your enjoyment…and any discussion and/or criticism that may come along with it. For context, this was almost two years after the Republican Senate Run-Off election in Mississippi (Never Forget Mississippi 2014!) and as an ex-Republican, I was largely sitting this one out as an innocent bystander / semi-interested observer. Also remember that Candidate Trump in 2016 was a very different “brand” than the man who began morphing into the Trump we know today only when the war with the Deep State went hot in November of that year. (Actually, history now records that transitional event in the War On Trump to be in late July of 2016 inside Obama’s Oval Office. But that rant is for another time…)

THE EBBS AND FLOWS OF A CHANGING EQUATION
Pulling Back from the Fray for some Story Telling with a RedState Old-Timer
(Archived draft of a post by ntrepid on the RedState Diary Page on May 7, 2016 – Mother’s Day)

I’d like to offer up a short weekend diversion for any willing takers.  Sometimes it’s good to stop talking and maybe read and ruminate some on the topics at hand.  This may be a good time to do just that.

Quite often I like to go back and read old RedState diaries and, more importantly, conversations.  It tends to be somewhat instructive to see new, old, and evolving memes, commenters who are still around or now missing in action and the boldness (or lack thereof) of their positons,  and the overall tone of the times.  Among other things…

Below I will provide a few links to a few old (non-Ntrepid) diaries. I recommend you go read the diary noting the date and thinking back to those times and your frame of mind at that point and how it may have changed since.  Then, with all that in mind, read through the comments / conversation that followed. For fun (and my own vanity and documentation) I will also provide quotes to the most important comments in each…that just happen to be mine.  With that, let’s get started:

(1) I Gave $100 to Thom Tillis’s Campaign by Erick Erickson, May 7, 2014

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2014/05/07/i-gave-100-to-thom-tilliss-campaign/

For reference, this is about a month before the Republican Mississippi Senate primary and “vote most conservative in the primary, Republican in the general” was still the rage here.

Key Ntrepid comment:

This “vote most conservative in the primary, Republican in the general” policy is generally a good rule of thumb – particularly in tipping the scales to a majority – but strict adherence ignorant of reality can be dangerous. Handing the office and all the stability and power of incumbency to an establishment puppet can saddle us with phony, unreliable numbers for a long time. Sometimes it might be better to actually keep the opposition on the other side of the aisle…and I don’t think that is stupid at all.

I encourage you to search for that conversation and note the rash of name calling it inspired.  See how fun this is.

(2) Abolish the IRS by Chairman Reince Priebus, June 25, 2014

http://www.redstate.com/diary/reincepriebus/2014/06/25/abolish-irs/

For reference, this is the day after the runoff for the 2014 Mississippi Republican Senate nomination.  I’m not sure the RedState neighborhood, having just endured a rather nasty urination down our back, was quite ready to hear about the rain from our beloved Establishment.  The tone of a great majority of the 96 comments is priceless. 

Key Ntrepid comment:

The RedState response to this diary is hilarious…and fully deserved. The only thing that will widen this grin is if all future posts by the distinguished Chairman were completely ignored. I will, however, take this opportunity to address him just this once…

Dear Chairman Priebus,

I’m out!*

Sincerely,

Ntrepid

*While the “conservative in the primary, Republican in November” theme gets thrown around a lot in these parts…by both intelligent commenters and boisterous buffoons alike…I hope it is sinking in just how dangerous it is to take that for granted. Sure, some of this fury will settle out and some will come back into the fold but the Thad Cochran run-off “victory” is where I get off this train. Beyond the tactics used in recent weeks, the fact that the weight of the party was thrown behind such a deficient character** when a suitable replacement was clearly willing and available just further clarifies the contempt you Ruling Class movers and shakers have for We the People. The establishment as a whole has now gone too far…and this shallow attempt to distract puts a rather bad light on you, too.

(**How much taxpayer money is being funneled to his executive assistant / landlord in both pay and rent? That game among the beltway class, those who have already spent decades fattening their bank accounts at our expense, is just insulting to hard working people out here in the real world.)

For the record, long ago I was the one here who did my best to argue for a “never cast my vote for McCain” position. Reprinted here (sorry, the comments have been lost to the ether) for your further enjoyment:

http://www.redstate.com/diary/ntrepid/2015/08/08/reject-shallow-analysis-reprise/

I was eventually talked back off that ledge but, I assure you, I will not retreat from Mississippi 2014.

(3) On the Value of Shooting Cowards by Leon H. Wolf, February 25, 2015

http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2015/02/25/value-shooting-cowards/

For reference, this was coming up on four months since the 2014 mid-terms and a few months into the new congress. The loyal suckers that delivered the Senate were catching on.

Please go read the whole thing, this is great stuff:

“We have to make some examples. The equation has changed. No longer is it sufficient to try to primary them. Now we have to be actively willing to help these people lose to Democrats, if need be, to discourage cowardice in this very real war for the survival of our country. … Cowardice must be punished with defeat. By Democrats, if necessary. Because cowardice is cancerous and worse than frank opposition. Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC) is not pro-choice, she just lost her courage at the worst possible moment, and as a result a critical bloc of the caucus caved when they caught her cowardice in the trench. Her and others like her must be replaced at any and all costs. The only alternative is to prepare to accept the terms of the enemy. And hopefully we are not there yet.”

Key Ntrepid comment:

“The equation has changed.” – It has been interesting in recent times to see how different people hit this point at different times. I mean really hit it. Many get mad, vent here and elsewhere, then turn around and cheer for their man McConnell (or whoever) during next week’s fight. Most, if not all of us, go through those cycles. For me, the equation finally changed during the Mississippi Republican primary run-off in 2014. During and after that, it became clear to me that once past that threshold you are just in a different reality than those who want to robotically scream “[you must] vote most conservative in the primary, Republican in the general”. Rational discussions back across that divide were hard to come by but I tried:

“[Their] overall voting record is IRRELEVANT; it is on the votes that are really important to conservatives that these types will always be available to tip the scales the other way if needed. All the while, “we” feel good because we think we have the numbers. … Sometimes it might be better to actually keep the opposition on the other side of the aisle…”(1)

I suspect that you have a much larger pool of potential converts now.

In a very good post, I think it fitting that you end with reference to Ms. Ellmers. While I tend to agree with you about the needs at the ballot box, I think it also valuable to recognize that, until then, the divide between us and them (whatever that means) is not along the aisle that divides the parties. It is well into our own territory. I propose, as I mentioned recently (2), that the most appropriate marker can be based on the rather annoying Heritage Action Score that now pollutes these pages. I put that divide at the Ellmers-line…51%…noting that demonstrated leadership ability (or lack thereof) trumps a silly 67% based on rigged voting record putting Mr. McConnell on their side.

Hopefully, once the emotion wears off in the coming days, more will truly recognize that “The equation has changed.” As for “The only alternative is to prepare to accept the terms of the enemy”…well,…

“NUTS!”

(1) http://www.redstate.com/erick/2014/05/07/i-gave-100-to-thom-tilliss-campaign/

(2) http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2015/01/22/repreneeellmers-want-protect-rapists-abortionists/

PS. I will admit that, if I had only been a bit stronger at heart, the equation would have…should have…changed with Alaska 2010. I won’t be the weak again.

Conclusion

As I peruse so many of the current conversations, I am doing my best to just stay out of it.  There are some important and interesting things being said about the candidates and the coming election but I cannot help but feel that so much of that is irrelevant.  The problem is not the candidates, it’s We the People.  The fact that somewhere near 70% of the primary voting electorate so far has been somewhere between “willing to” and “happy to” cast their vote for Sanders, Clinton, or Trump is a disgrace to all prior generations on these shores that gave us an America built on liberty and rugged individualism.  Yet again, I will repeat the line I stole from Charles Murray (Coming Apart): “A significant and growing portion of the American population [has lost] the virtues required to be functioning members of a free society.”  I suspect that growing portion is now a majority…and still growing.

With that, I will complete this little exercise the same way I did my somewhat cathartic capitulation last fall:

With so much of the system working against us, it is time we use the few tools available to us to push the country to either extreme…liberty restored or collapse and rebirth…where a free society is at least conceivable. The orchestrated decline we are currently on is the worst possible course for We the People. (X)

As of last Tuesday, I fear the “liberty restored” path is now closed.

Happy Mother’s Day to all the lovely moms out there.

Ntrepid

Member Since 2006

(X) http://www.redstate.com/diary/ntrepid/2015/07/12/considering-deliberate-march-abyss/