I regret to inform those who have been anxiously awaiting the data tables promised in the PREVIEW post a few weeks back that they are about to be disappointed. Links is all you will get today (see below). I just have time today to start poking at the data just a little bit.

You may remember that I was wanting to review the voting data that let the referenced California county that seemed to have a stable party distribution for U.S. House seats across the six districts (for at least three consecutive election cycles) like this:

Then, after implementing the harvesting scheme for ballots in that 2018 cycle, the district representation took on a very different (and rather uniform) look:

Witness:

Vote Harvesting a Recipe for Coercion and Election Fraud

North Carolina allows “a voter’s near relative or the voter’s verifiable legal guardian” to return an absentee ballot. California had a similar law that allowed a relative or household member to return an absentee ballot. The law was amended in 2016, effective in the 2018 election, and now allows a voter to “designate any person to return the ballot.”

[Emphasis added]

What could go wrong?:

Most people had never heard that term until the 2018 elections. … Meanwhile, on the West Coast, concerns about vote harvesting were raised in California after unexpected losses by Republicans in several congressional races. Concerns were especially acute in Orange County, where the registrar of voters reported that individuals were dropping off hundreds of absentee ballots each.

[Emphasis added]

The obvious point (to anyone willing to see):

…the rules governing absentee ballots should not make them susceptible to theft, forgery or coercion.

That is exactly what states are doing when they allow vote harvesting. Giving third parties who have a stake in the outcome of an election unsupervised access to voters and their absentee ballots is not wise. Indeed, it is a proven threat to the integrity of our elections.

Now, some data talk…

Assuming that I have transcribed the data properly, the first thing that catches my eye is with the two seemingly reliable blue districts across the span of this study. Note that in the off-year election of 2014, the number of votes for the democrat candidate in Districts 46 and 47 dropped by 50K (-48%) and 61K (-47%), respectively compared to the 2012 Presidential election turnout. Reduced Democrat voter turnout in the four reliably red districts was -39%, -53%, -45% and -44%. I’m guessing this is all very typical for off-year elections. (For reference, the reduced turnout of votes for Republican candidates in the reliably red districts for that cycle was similar and very consistent (in numerical order): 37%, 38%, 36%, and 39%. and for the blue districts: -38% and -46%.)

Moving now to the 2018 election, those two safe blue districts again showed reduced Democrat turnout versus the preceding Presidential election with -37% and -7%, respectively. Things get interesting with the four districts that flipped to blue in this cycle. Each one resulted in an increase in Democrat turnout versus the same reference…with increases of 12%, 23%, 23%, and 8% (in numerical order). If we use the 2012-2014 cycle as a baseline, this remarkable vote-harvesting-aided tally resulted in 81K more Democrat votes in District 39 than an historically normal off-year election might have expected. For Districts 45, 48, and 48 these additional vote estimates are 98K, 87K, and 79K, respectively. 

For those who are good at doing math in their head on the fly, that is on the order of 346K votes over what might be expected on an historically normal off-year election in four congressional districts that recorded 1.2M votes in 2016 and 1.1M votes in 2018. (How close was GA in 2020 again?)

There is much to think about in there but to wrap this up quickly, I return again to this thought: Just imagine the power of such a thing if strategically implemented in favorable urban areas from sea to shining sea with a special enabling factor of tens of thousands or even millions of unaccountably untraceable mail-in ballots tied to hopelessly polluted voter registration rolls and backed by inexhaustible funds (see Zuck Bucks).

Or, more succinctly: Eighty-Plus Million Biden Votes My Arse.

(Apologies for not showing my work. Hopefully I will get back to this topic and do a better job.)

*** DATA LINKS ***

2012 United States House of Representatives elections in California – Wikipedia

2014 United States House of Representatives elections in California – Wikipedia

2016 United States House of Representatives elections in California – Wikipedia

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in California – Wikipedia